According to the most recent results of an often-cited survey by ManpowerGroup, U.S. employers have reported the strongest fourth-quarter hiring outlook in six years.
Manpower conducted over 18,000 interviews with U.S. employers in all states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the top-100 metropolitan statistical areas regarding their job hiring intentions in Quarter 4 (Q4) 2013. The survey covered 13 industry “supersectors” that are representative of the U.S. economy.
Of the employers surveyed:
- 18% anticipated increasing staff levels
- 8% expected to reduce staff levels
- 72% projected no change
- 2% were undecided
The math (18% – 8%) shows a net hiring outlook of 10% for Q4 (October-December) 2013. When tweaked for seasonal variations that can skew employment numbers, the seasonally-adjusted net hiring outlook becomes 13%.
That’s a 2 percentage point increase in seasonally-adjusted net hiring from Q4 a year ago. Better yet, it’s the strongest fourth-quarter hiring outlook since Q4 2007, when it was 19%. Employers have now reported a positive seasonally-adjusted net hiring outlook for 16 quarters in a row, after reporting a negative net hiring outlook in each of the last three quarters of 2009.
Manpower’s survey indicated that employers in all of the 13 industry supersectors expect positive net hiring in Q4 2013, as shown in the percentages listed below (not seasonally adjusted).
- Construction 5%
- Education & Health Services 9%
- Financial Activities 10%
- Government 4%
- Information 11%
- Leisure & Hospitality 17%
- Manufacturing, Durable Goods 8%
- Manufacturing, Nondurable Goods 7%
- Mining 9%
- Other Services 2%
- Professional & Business Services 13%
- Transportation & Utilities 11%
- Wholesale & Retail Trade 22%
The survey also indicated that employers in all four of the major U.S. regions expect positive net hiring in Q4 2013 when seasonally adjusted, as follows.
- West 14%
- South 13%
- Midwest 12%
- Northeast 11%
The unemployment rate dropped to 7.3% in August 2013 and the economy gained 169,000 nonfarm jobs. According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July job openings were 3.7 million, little changed from June.
ManpowerGroup has been publishing such surveys for over 50 years. For the most recent surveys about hiring projections in the U.S. and other countries as well, visit Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
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