According to the most recent results of an often-cited survey by ManpowerGroup, “Hiring optimism among U.S. employers is gaining momentum”.
Manpower conducted over 18,000 interviews with U.S. employers in all states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the top-100 metropolitan statistical areas regarding their job hiring intentions in Quarter 2 (Q2) 2012. The survey covered 13 industry “supersectors” that are representative of the U.S. economy.
Of the employers surveyed:
- 18% anticipated increasing staff levels
- 6% expected to reduce staff levels
- 72% anticipated no change in hiring and staff levels
- 4% were undecided about hiring and staff levels
The math (18% - 6%) shows a net hiring outlook of 12% for Q2 (April-June) 2012. When seasonal variations that skew employment numbers are removed, the net hiring outlook becomes 10%. That’s up by 1% from Manpower’s Q1 2012 survey and by 2% from their survey for Q2 of last year.
It’s also 12 percentage points higher than the recessionary low of -2% in 2009 and the first time that it hit double digits since Q4 2008, according to Manpower. Employers have now reported a positive seasonally-adjusted net hiring outlook for ten quarters in a row, after reporting a negative net hiring outlook in the last three quarters of 2009.
Manpower’s survey indicated that employers in all 13 industry supersectors expect positive net hiring in Q2 2012 when seasonally adjusted, as shown in the percentages listed below.
- Construction 9%
- Education & Health Services 7%
- Financial Activities 11%
- Government 5%
- Information 10%
- Leisure & Hospitality 26%
- Manufacturing, Durable Goods 15%
- Manufacturing, Nondurable Goods 13%
- Mining 20%
- Other Services 8%
- Professional & Business Services 17%
- Transportation & Utilities 13%
- Wholesale & Retail Trade 14%
The net hiring outlook was up in all industries from Q1 2012. Manpower’s survey said that “When the industry sector data is compared quarter-over-quarter, employers in the Construction, Nondurable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation & Utilities and Leisure & Hospitality sectors anticipate a considerable hiring increase, while employers in the Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale & Retail Trade and Professional & Business Services sectors anticipate a moderate hiring increase.”
The survey also indicated that employers in all four of the major U.S. regions expect positive net hiring in Q2 2012 when seasonally adjusted. Employers in the Midwest reported the strongest net hiring outlook at 12%, while those in the South reported the second highest at 10%. Employers in the West and Northeast projected slightly weaker net hiring at 9%.
The unemployment rate held at 8.3% from January into February 2012 and the economy netted 227,000 nonfarm jobs. It was the lowest unemployment rate in three years and the third consecutive month in which the economy gained over 200,000 jobs.
ManpowerGroup has been publishing such surveys for nearly 50 years. For the most recent surveys about hiring in the U.S. and other countries as well, visit Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
