According to the most recent results of an often-cited survey by ManpowerGroup, “U.S. employers expect hiring to increase slightly in the first quarter” of 2012.
Manpower conducted over 18,000 interviews with U.S. employers in all states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the top-100 metropolitan statistical areas regarding their job hiring intentions in Quarter 1 (Q1) 2012. The survey covered 13 industry “supersectors” that are representative of the U.S. economy.
Of the employers surveyed:
- 14% anticipated increasing staff levels
- 9% expected to reduce staff levels
- 70% anticipated no change in hiring and staff levels
- 7% were undecided about hiring and staff levels
The math (14%-9%) shows a net hiring outlook of 5% for Q1 (January-March) 2012. When seasonal variations that skew employment numbers are removed, the net hiring outlook increases to 9%, up 2% from the Q4 2011 survey and “the most promising hiring Outlook since 2008″ according to Manpower.
Employers have now reported a positive seasonally-adjusted net hiring outlook for nine quarters in a row, after reporting a negative net hiring outlook in the last three quarters of 2009.
Fairly good news, except for the 7% of undecided employers. It was the highest percentage of employer uncertainty since 2005 and its jump up from 3% to 7% was the most significant from quarter to quarter since 1977.
Manpower’s survey indicated that employers in 12 of the 13 industry supersectors expect positive net hiring in Q1 2012 when seasonally adjusted, as shown in the percentages listed below.
- Construction -7%
- Education & Health Services 3%
- Financial Activities 8%
- Government 1%
- Information 8%
- Leisure & Hospitality 14%
- Manufacturing, Durable Goods 8%
- Manufacturing, Nondurable Goods 4%
- Mining 16%
- Other Services 4%
- Professional & Business Services 9%
- Transportation & Utilities 2%
- Wholesale & Retail Trade 9%
The survey also indicated that employers in all four of the major U.S. regions expect positive net hiring in Q1 2012 when seasonally adjusted. Employers in the Midwest reported the strongest net hiring outlook at 10%, the best for the region since Q3 2008 thanks mostly to manufacturing. Employers in the West projected the weakest net hiring at 6%, while those in the Northeast and South reported 8% and 9%, respectively.
The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to its lowest level in almost three years in November and the private sector added 140,000 nonfarm jobs.
ManpowerGroup has been publishing such surveys for more than 45 years. For the most recent surveys about hiring in the U.S. and other countries as well, visit Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
