According to the most recent results of an often-cited survey by ManpowerGroup, “U.S. employers’ hiring intentions are among the strongest globally for the third quarter of 2015.”
Manpower conducted over 11,000 interviews with U.S. employers in all states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the top-100 metropolitan statistical areas regarding their job hiring intentions in Quarter 3 (Q3) 2015. The survey covered 13 industry “supersectors” that are representative of the U.S. economy.
Of the employers surveyed:
- 24% anticipated increasing staff levels
- 4% expected to reduce staff levels
- 70% projected no change
- 2% were undecided
The math (24% – 4%) shows a net hiring outlook of 20% for Q3 (July-September) 2015. When tweaked for seasonal variations that can skew employment numbers, the seasonally-adjusted net hiring outlook becomes 16%.
U.S. employers have now reported a positive net hiring outlook for 23 quarters in a row, after reporting a negative net hiring outlook in each of the last three quarters of 2009.
Manpower’s survey indicated that employers in 12 of the 13 industry supersectors expect positive net hiring in Q3 2015, as shown in the seasonally-adjusted percentages listed below.
- Construction 15%
- Education & Health Services 13%
- Financial Activities 12%
- Government 14%
- Information 13%
- Leisure & Hospitality 28%
- Manufacturing, Durable Goods 13%
- Manufacturing, Nondurable Goods 11%
- Mining -5%
- Other Services 10%
- Professional & Business Services 18%
- Transportation & Utilities 18%
- Wholesale & Retail Trade 23%
Mining is likely showing a negative hiring outlook because of recent lower oil and natural gas prices causing layoffs in the industry. Otherwise, mining had been hiring regularly and was one of the few industries to do so throughout the Great Recession.
The survey also indicated that employers in all four of the major U.S. regions expect positive net hiring in Q3 2015 when seasonally adjusted, as follows.
- Northeast 15%
- Midwest 17%
- West 18%
- South 18%
The unemployment rate ticked up from 5.4 to 5.5 percent in May 2015, but it was still the lowest rate since May 2008. According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary released on June 9, 2015 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, job openings were 5.4 million in April, the most since the Bureau began issuing the report in December 2000.
ManpowerGroup has been publishing such surveys for over 50 years. For the most recent surveys about hiring projections in the U.S. and other countries as well, visit Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
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