According to the most recent results of an often-cited survey by ManpowerGroup, U.S. employers have reported the strongest Quarter 1 hiring outlook since 2008.
Manpower conducted over 18,000 interviews with U.S. employers in all states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the top-100 metropolitan statistical areas regarding their job hiring intentions in Quarter 1 (Q1) 2014. The survey covered 13 industry “supersectors” that are representative of the U.S. economy.
Of the employers surveyed:
- 17% anticipated increasing staff levels
- 7% expected to reduce staff levels
- 73% projected no change
- 3% were undecided
The math (17% – 7%) shows a net hiring outlook of 10% for Q1 (January-March) 2014. When tweaked for seasonal variations that can skew employment numbers, the seasonally-adjusted net hiring outlook becomes 13%.
That makes Quarter 1 the strongest since 2008, when the seasonally-adjusted net hiring outlook was 16%. Employers have now reported a positive seasonally-adjusted net hiring outlook for 17 quarters in a row, after reporting a negative net hiring outlook in each of the last three quarters of 2009.
Manpower’s survey indicated that employers in all of the 13 industry supersectors expect positive net hiring in Q1 2014, as shown in the seasonally-adjusted percentages listed below.
- Construction 9%
- Education & Health Services 8%
- Financial Activities 10%
- Government 6%
- Information 13%
- Leisure & Hospitality 23%
- Manufacturing, Durable Goods 10%
- Manufacturing, Nondurable Goods 12%
- Mining 11%
- Other Services 6%
- Professional & Business Services 16%
- Transportation & Utilities 13%
- Wholesale & Retail Trade 19%
The survey also indicated that employers in all four of the major U.S. regions expect positive net hiring in Q1 2014 when seasonally adjusted, as follows.
- South 14%
- West 13%
- Midwest 12%
- Northeast 11%
The unemployment rate dropped from 7.3 to 7.0% in November 2013 and the economy netted 203,000 nonfarm jobs. According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary released yesterday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, October job openings were 3.9 million, little changed from September.
ManpowerGroup has been publishing such surveys for over 50 years. For the most recent surveys about hiring projections in the U.S. and other countries as well, visit Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
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